The Bakken fields, while impressive, would be completely exhausted with about 1 months of world oil demand if it were the sole provider, or 105 days if the U.S. used all the oil. To get at that oil, they have to use a fracking technology that is being heavily scrutinized as a potential ecological nightmare. Who knows if the EPA will ban it. It wouldnt be the first time the government has stood in the way of available energy by means of regulation (see Coal). There are many other sites across the world, through new technology, are expanding their collectable reserves by large amounts. There are impressive sites especially in South America.
The main issue that most people dont realize is that the giant oil fields that account for the bulk of the world's oil supply are in decline (they produce less oil every year), and there are less giants being found to replinish their supply. So, yes, we are finding a lot of new fields in new, deeper, harder to get to areas. Will they be enough to offset the declines? Who knows.From what I've seen and read, almost every year there is talk about new discoveries. If we're running out or reaching peak, why are they still exploring and finding new sources?
I dont know the Shell CEO's motivation. Personally, I take what industry executives say with a grain of salt. I base my opinions on outside evaluation. They problem with that is that most of the TRUE facts of the vast majority of the world's fields are STATE SECRETS. We dont really know what OPEC producers have in reserve, because they deny external assessments of their fields.
If you havent seen it yet in my argument, there is significant justified debate on both sides with regards to our oil supply. We dont really know whats out there, which is why need to distance ourselves from overdependance.
I'm not surprised we are having this debate. I am fairly connected to the energy, and have contacts high within the DoE. I attend seminars on the subject of energy. Unfortunately, the publics knowledge of energy is not good, and if there is a crisis, they always seem to blame the energy companies with giving little credence to the fact that the world uses a resource on a daily level in unimaginable levels.
Think of it this way, the world uses about 43 super tankers of oil a day. I guess its possible we'll grow supply to deal with using 60 or 70 super tankers of oil a day, but the scale alone should scare anyone.
Reply With Quote
